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Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

Identifieur interne : 000274 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000273; suivant : 000275

Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile

Auteurs : Gerardo Chowell ; Lone Simonsen ; Rodrigo Fuentes ; Jose Flores ; Mark A. Miller ; Cécile Viboud

Source :

RBID : PMC:5410718

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Introduction

Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower‐income settings.

Methods

We analyzed the spatial–temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile, including detailed age‐specific mortality data from a large city, and investigated risk factors for severe mortality impact across regions.

Results

Chile exhibited two waves of excess mortality in winter 1957 and 1959 with a cumulative excess mortality rate of 12 per 10 000, and a ~10‐fold mortality difference across provinces. High excess mortality rates were associated with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=.02), but not with latitude (P>.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4‐2.1 to R=1.2‐1.4 between the two pandemic waves.

Conclusions

The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record for this pandemic—about three to five times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high‐income countries.


Url:
DOI: 10.1111/irv.12439
PubMed: 27883281
PubMed Central: 5410718


Affiliations:


Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)


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<title>Introduction</title>
<p>Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower‐income settings.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="irv12439-sec-0002">
<title>Methods</title>
<p>We analyzed the spatial–temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile, including detailed age‐specific mortality data from a large city, and investigated risk factors for severe mortality impact across regions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="irv12439-sec-0003">
<title>Results</title>
<p>Chile exhibited two waves of excess mortality in winter 1957 and 1959 with a cumulative excess mortality rate of 12 per 10 000, and a ~10‐fold mortality difference across provinces. High excess mortality rates were associated with high baseline mortality (
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<p>The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record for this pandemic—about three to five times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high‐income countries.</p>
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